Decreased Security and Increased Tension

Russian Weapons on European Soil...
by Jeff Nelson

The current state of politics in Russia is still at a difficult state to decipher.   Back in July, Russia pulled out of the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE), and with the presidential elections coming up in March, countries are worried about the future security within Europe. 

The CFE is an important treaty, as it was one of the most significant arms controls agreements to come out of the Cold War.  It regulated the amount of heavy weapons countries can deploy on the European continent, and was recognized as a "cornerstone of European Security."  It was amended in 1999 to accommodate Russian concerns about maneuvering units within its country, but the changes still have not been signed by all members.  The NATO countries did not ratify the revised treaty because Russian troops remained in parts of Moldova and Georgia.  Russia pledged in 1999 to pull those troops out of those regions, but the troops still remain. 

In July, the Russian president announced that Russian would be suspending compliance with the CFE.  Reasons stemmed from NATO members waiting to ratify the revisions and U.S. plans to expand a missile defense shield into Central Europe.  The expansion aims to place sites in Poland and the Czech Republic, which Moscow says is a threat to its security.

Since the Russian announcement to suspend it's compliance, many countries have voiced their concern fearing things have taken a step backward decreasing the security in Europe.  Negotiations so far have failed, but Germany, concerned with the security implications of the move,  is opting to host a conference in October to discuss the future of the CFE.

What we need to know is where will Russian politics take this issue after the elections in march.  Realistically I do not see the whole situation changing during that conference in October.  Russia and UK are back to their tense political relationship with the deportation of Russian and British diplomats over the murder of an ex-KGB agent in London.  There is tension between Russia and the U.S. over the missile defense system being installed in Central Europe, and lets not forget about the tension between Russia and the rest of the UN Security Council over the issue of independence for Kosovo. 

Russia claims that the treaty is no longer effective, but that does not mean its no longer international law.  We need to see some sort of effort to put the treaty back into binding effect for all of the original signers from NATO and the Warsaw Pact nations.  International security is always a hot issue when it becomes threatened.  Escalation into armed conflict over this is not very likely, but unfriendly political relations definitely have an effect on other issues the world is trying to resolve, like Kosovo and Darfur.   Limitations on and transparency about weapons deployments in Europe can avoid tense situations and lessen the blow to security concerns.

Sources:

Assoc. Press, Russia confirms obscure PM choice, CNN, Sept. 14, 2007, available at http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/europe/09/14/russia.parliament/index.html

Reuters, Germany Wants to Rescue Arms Pact Dropped by Russia, Defense News, Sept. 12, 2007, available at http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?F=3034100&C=europe

Russia suspends arms control pact, BBC, July 14, 2007, available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6898690.stm

John Marcus, Russia sends warning to the West, BBC, July 14, 2007, available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6898897.stm

Putin steps up missiles warning, BBC, Apr. 27, 2007, available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6599647.stm